Goldman Sachs released its 2026 FIFA World Cup statistical model on May 29, 2026, putting Spain at the top of the winner-probability table with a 26 percent chance, followed by France at 19 percent and Argentina at 14 percent. Brazil sits on 8 percent; England and the Netherlands at around 5 percent each. The model combines roughly 20,000 international matches since 1978 with Elo ratings, scoring talent, team momentum and geographic factors. The economists projected France versus Spain in one semi-final and Argentina versus Brazil in the other, with Spain beating Argentina in the final in New York on July 19. The firm cautioned that the prediction is an estimate with limited model power and that football carries inherent unpredictability.
The favourite is Spain
Goldman Sachs released its 2026 FIFA World Cup statistical model on May 29, 2026, putting Spain at the top of the winner-probability table with a 26 percent chance. France sits second at 19 percent; Argentina third at 14 percent.
The rest of the field
Brazil sits on 8 percent; England and the Netherlands at around 5 percent each. The numbers reflect the model's relative ranking; the firm did not publish national-team probabilities below those listed.
How the model works
The model combines data from roughly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 with Elo ratings — a chess-derived strength system — alongside scoring talent, team momentum and geographic factors.
The winner's slump warning
The economists noted ‘the winner's slump', warning that Argentina may underperform after winning in 2022. The cautionary note adjusts down their own favourite-status case.
What the model projects
The projected semi-finals pair France against Spain in the all-European track and Argentina against Brazil in the South American one. Goldman's model sees Spain beating Argentina in the final in New York on July 19, 2026.
The caveat
The firm cautioned that the prediction is an estimate with limited model power. ‘Soccer is full of inherent unpredictability,' the economists wrote.
Mentioned in this story
Published the 2026 World Cup statistical model on May 29, 2026.
Goldman's model favourite at 26 percent winner probability.
Second on Goldman's model at 19 percent.
Third at 14 percent; flagged for the ‘winner's slump' after 2022.
Originally created for chess; used in Goldman's model alongside historical match data.